BJP Anticipated to Reclaim Delhi After 27 Years, Delhi Exit Polls Indicate

BJP Anticipated to Reclaim Delhi After 27 Years, Delhi Exit Polls Indicate

Delhi Exit Polls Forecast BJP’s Resurgence: In a potential political shift, exit polls from the recent Delhi Assembly elections suggest that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to secure a majority in the 70-member assembly, marking a return to power in the national capital after nearly three decades. This development poses a considerable challenge to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Arvind Kejriwal, which has governed Delhi for the past two terms.

Diverse Exit Poll Projections

Various exit polls have provided differing seat projections for the BJP and AAP. For instance, Matrize forecasts the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) securing between 35 to 40 seats, with AAP expected to win 32 to 37 seats. In contrast, People’s Pulse suggests a more decisive victory for the BJP, predicting 51 to 60 seats for the NDA and only 10 to 19 for AAP. Other polls, such as P-Marq and JVC, also indicate a favorable outcome for the BJP, projecting 39 to 49 and 39 to 45 seats, respectively.

AAP’s Response to Exit Polls

Despite these projections, AAP leaders remain optimistic. Reena Gupta, a prominent figure within the party, expressed confidence in securing a historic victory, emphasizing that past exit polls have underestimated AAP’s performance. She stated, “You look at any exit poll historically, AAP is always given a smaller number of seats… AAP will register a historic victory.”

Historical Context and Previous Exit Poll Accuracy

It’s noteworthy that exit polls have not always accurately predicted Delhi’s electoral outcomes. In both the 2015 and 2020 elections, AAP achieved overwhelming victories, securing 67 and 62 seats respectively, despite exit polls suggesting closer contests. This historical context suggests that while current projections favor the BJP, the actual results may differ.

Factors Influencing the Predicted Shift

Several elements may have contributed to the BJP’s anticipated resurgence. Analysts suggest that allegations of corruption against AAP leaders, including the arrest of Arvind Kejriwal on graft charges, have impacted public perception. The BJP has leveraged these allegations in its campaign, aiming to position itself as a cleaner alternative.

Additionally, the BJP’s recent electoral successes in other states and its focus on national issues may have bolstered its appeal among Delhi voters. The party’s emphasis on middle-class concerns, particularly in light of the recent budget favoring this demographic, could also play a role in swaying voter sentiment.

Congress’s Continued Decline

The exit polls uniformly predict a minimal impact for the Congress party in this election, with most projections allocating zero to two seats to the once-dominant political force. This trend underscores the party’s ongoing struggle to regain relevance in Delhi’s political landscape.

Awaiting Official Results

While exit polls provide an early indication of potential outcomes, the official results, scheduled for release on February 8, will ultimately confirm the next governing party in Delhi. Given the historical discrepancies between exit polls and actual results, all parties remain cautiously optimistic as they await the final count.