Exit Polls Signal Close Race in Maharashtra Assembly Elections
As Maharashtra awaits the final results of the 2023 assembly elections, exit polls from multiple agencies predict a tight race between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). With a majority mark set at 145 in the 288-seat assembly, the NDA appears poised for a slight advantage, though the MVA remains a formidable challenger.
Exit Poll Data Overview
| Source | NDA | MVA | OTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chanakya Strategies | 152-160 | 130-138 | 6-8 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 125-140 | 135-150 | 20-25 |
| Electoral Edge | 118 | 150 | 20 |
| Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra | 128-142 | 125-140 | 18-23 |
| Matrize | 150-170 | 110-130 | 8-10 |
| P-Marq | 137-157 | 126-146 | 2-8 |
| Peoples Pulse | 175-195 | 85-112 | 7-12 |
| Poll Diary | 122-186 | 69-121 | 10-27 |
| Times Now-JVC | 150-167 | 107-125 | 13-14 |
| Average (Exit Polls) | 150 | 125 | 13 |
NDA Positioned to Lead, MVA Shows Resilience
Most exit polls, including projections from Chanakya Strategies, Matrize, and Times Now-JVC, place the NDA in a favorable position, with estimates ranging between 150-195 seats. Matrize, in particular, predicts a dominant performance for the NDA with a potential high of 170 seats.
Meanwhile, the MVA is projected to secure between 110-150 seats across different polls, reflecting its continued strength in the state. Agencies like Electoral Edge and Dainik Bhaskar suggest the MVA may push closer to the majority mark, fueled by its grassroots support and coalition dynamics.
The “Others” category, comprising smaller parties and independents, is expected to hold 10-27 seats, potentially playing a key role in shaping the government if results fall short of clear majorities.
What Lies Ahead?
While exit polls lean toward an NDA majority, the margins remain narrow in some cases, underscoring the unpredictability of the final results. Analysts note that local dynamics, candidate selection, and voter turnout patterns will significantly influence the outcome.
Election observers caution against over-reliance on exit polls, emphasizing that they are estimates and not definitive predictions. The actual results, set to be announced shortly, will determine whether the NDA consolidates its lead or if the MVA stages an upset.
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